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Yet, the stock market’s buoyancy belies the head-spinning conga line of events over the first month of 2026 that would, at any other time in history, have caused the market to plunge or coincided with it.

Take gold’s 17 per cent ascent so far this month, which follows a 66 per cent rise in 2025. Such moves are unusual. Since gold began trading freely in the 1970s, the average annual return for gold has been roughly 6-8 per cent. January’s return doubles that annual number.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear and Greed to look back at some of the key themes that shaped markets in 2025, including the hype surrounding in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks and the growing case for small caps. We also talked about the rise in gold and silver as the U.S. dollar weakened, and what those moves could signal for investors.

We then looked ahead to 2026, discussing why markets may become more volatile and how diversification into assets uncorrelated to traditional markets could help support portfolios. We covered Digital Asset Funds Management’s Digital Income Fund and how its digital arbitrage strategy aims to benefit from market volatility, and explored how Aura’s Private Credit Income Fund can provide income and returns with no correlation to sharemarkets.

You can listen to the episode on Fear and Greed here: The bull and bear cases for equities in 2026.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In my latest article for Firstlinks, I reflect on why 2025 delivered another strong year for equities, supported by the continued combination of disinflation and positive economic growth – with much of the strength driven by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI).

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Economics, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, On the Internet.

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According to a survey by Finder and, separately, modelling from investment and annuities firm Challenger, Australians are being haunted. Not in their homes, mind you, but in their bank accounts. The ghost, however, isn’t inflation; it’s the distant and diminishing finish line for what’s considered ‘financial peace of mind.’ continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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I joined Sean Aylmer for Fear and Greed’s summer series to talk about the growth of private credit, why it has expanded so quickly, and what investors should look for when assessing these opportunities. We also discussed how private credit can complement a diversified portfolio, providing an income stream that is uncorrelated to equity markets. 

You can catch the full episode here: Why private credit is booming. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education, Podcast Channel.

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Not only are stock market valuations stretched, but on the metrics that are most reliable for predicting future returns, the U.S. market is at an all-time high. We can say that factually and therefore categorically.  It’s not a matter of opinion. 

It’s worth remembering to bring everything back to the data to avoid the influence of emotions. 

The important question then is not whether reducing your exposure and rebalancing portfolios results in a missed opportunity to maximise gains, but whether you’ll regret not doing that, and instead of retiring in two years, being forced to work for another six or seven. Indeed, and upon reflection, there will always be regret; the decision is about which regret is worse. Letting gains evaporate might be worse than missing out on a few more dollars.

This article was first published in The Australian on 05 November 2025. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Global markets, In the Press, Market commentary.

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Markets sit at elevated levels, fuelled by optimism around artificial intelligence and the promise of lasting productivity gains. Yet beneath the excitement lies a complex mix of valuations, momentum, and risk – raising important questions about how investors can stay positioned if sentiment shifts.

Markets are expensive – observations and implications

There is a conga line of analysts, fund managers and commentators pointing out the extremes many traditional or conventional measures of value have now reached.  From price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and market-cap-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to earnings and dividend yields, the U.S. S&P 500 is in rarified air when it comes to the price investors are willing to pay for exposure to future growth. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In this week’s video insight I take a closer look at record stock markets, what’s driving them to new highs, and what that might mean for investors. The S&P 500 is trading at historic levels on measures such as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios, with much of the enthusiasm powered by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Companies are spending billions on cloud, semiconductors and infrastructure, while revenues are still catching up. It’s an exciting period of innovation, but also one where history reminds us markets often price in future growth well before it materialises. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Digital Asset Funds Management, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Video Insights.

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I recently read an interesting post on Substack about the state of the market. However, there was one paragraph whose significance might have been missed, even by those who subscribe to the author’s musings.  

Here’s the paragraph in question, followed by what I hope will prove a useful explanation.

The paragraph was titled “No Equity Risk Premium.”

“Meanwhile the macro-middle scenario that has prevailed in 2025 has helped stocks push higher, and with still elevated bond yields that has squeezed the forward-looking “prospective equity risk premium” deeper into the negatives. That may not matter this week, this month, or even this quarter, but it does tell us the forward looking risk vs return set points to an entirely different regime than what we’ve become accustomed to.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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There are four major criticisms for holding cash as an investment. But what if there was a simple alternative that went some way to invalidating those criticisms? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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